U.S. stocks have tended to fare well around the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole gathering in August, according to a historical analysis from DataTrek Research, although the market has seen sizable moves in both directions in recent years.

The takeaway is that markets aren’t pricing in any sort of “succession premium” tied to any one chairman. The glidepath of monetary policy — regardless of Powell’s successor — appears structural, anchored to the Fed’s backward-looking framework . If that holds, it would mark a break from recent history.